Interviewer: Today we have Elon Musk. 2
Elon, 3
thank you for joining us. 4
Elon: Thanks for having me. 5
Interviewer: So, 6
we want to spend the time today talking about your view of the future and what people should work on. 7
To start off, 8
could you tell us, 9
you famously said, 10
when you were younger, 11
there were five problems that you thought were most important for you to work on. 12
If you were 22 today, 13
what would the five problems that you would think about working on be? 14
Elon: Well, 15
first of all, 16
I think if somebody is doing something that is useful to the rest of society, 17
I think that's a good thing. 18
Like, 19
it doesn't have to change the world. 20
If you make something that has high value to people... 21
And frankly, 22
even if it's something, 23
if it's like just a little game or some improvement in photo sharing or something, 24
if it has a small amount of good for a large number of people, 25
I think that's fine. 26
Stuff doesn't need to change the world just to be good. 27
But in terms of things that I think are most like to affect the future of humanity, 28
I think AI is probably the single biggest item in the near-term that's likely to affect humanity. 29
So, 30
it's very important that we have the advent of AI in a good way. 31
It's something that, 32
if you could look into the crystal ball and to the future, 33
you would like that outcome because it is something that could go wrong, 34
as we've talked about many times. 35
And so, 36
we really need to make sure it goes right. 37
So that's AI, 38
working on AI and making sure it's great future. 39
That's the most important thing, 40
I think, 41
right now, 42
the most pressing item. 43
Then, 44
I would say anything to do with genetics. 45
If you can actually solve genetic diseases, 46
if you can prevent dementia or Alzheimer's or something like that with genetic reprograming, 47
that would be wonderful. 48
So I think genetics might be the sort of second most important item. 49
And then, 50
I think, 51
having a high-bandwidth interface to the brain. 52
We're currently bandwidth-limited. 53
We have a digital tertiary self in the form of out email capabilities, 54
our computers, 55
phones, 56
applications. 57
We're practically superhuman. 58
But we're extremely bandwidth-constrained in that interface between the cortex and that tertiary digital form of yourself. 59
And helping solve that bandwidth constraint would be, 60
I think, 61
very important in the future as well. 62
Yeah. 63
Interviewer: So one of the, 64
I think, 65
most common questions I hear ambitious young people ask is, 66
"I want to be the next Elon Musk. 67
How do I do that? 68
" Obviously, 69
the next Elon Musk will work on very different things than you did. 70
But what have you done or what did you do when you were younger that you think sort of set you up to have a big impact? 71
Elon: Well, 72
first of all, 73
I should say that I do not expect to be involved in all these things. 74
So, 75
the five things that I thought about at the time in college, 76
so quite a long time ago, 77
25 years ago, 78
making life multi-planetary, 79
accelerating the transmission to sustainable energy, 80
the Internet broadly speaking, 81
and then genetics, 82
and AI. 83
I didn't expect to be involved in all those things. 84
Actually, 85
at the time in college, 86
I sort of thought helping with electrification of cars was how it would start out. 87
That's actually what I worked on as an intern was advanced ultra-capacitors, 88
to see if there would be a breakthrough relative to batteries for energy storage in cars. 89
And then, 90
when I came out to go to Stanford, 91
that's what I was going to be doing my grad studies on was working on advanced energy storage technologies for electric cars. 92
And I put that on hold to start an Internet company in '95 because there does seem to be a time for particular technologies when they're at a steep point in the inflection curve. 93
And I didn't want to do a PHD at Stanford and watch it all happen. 94
I wasn't entirely certain that the technology I'd be working on would succeed. 95
You can get a doctorate on many things that ultimately do not a have practical bearing on the world. 96
And I really was just trying to be useful. 97
That's the optimization. 98
It's like, 99
"What can I do that would actually be useful? 100
"Interviewer: Do you think people that want to be useful today should get PhDs? 101
Elon: Mostly not. 102
Interviewer: What is the way to be useful? 103
Elon: Some yes, 104
but mostly not. 105
Interviewer: How should someone figure out how they can be most useful? 106
Elon: Well, 107
I think you make some estimates of, 108
whatever this thing is that you're trying to create, 109
what would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art times how many people it would affect. 110
So that's why I think having something that makes a big difference but affects sort of small to moderate number of people is great, 111
as is something that makes even a small difference but affects a vast number of people. 112
Like, 113
the area under the curve. 114
Interviewer: Yeah, 115
the area under the curve. 116
Elon: Yeah, 117
exactly. 118
I mean, 119
the area under the curve would actually be roughly similar for those two things, 120
so it's actually really about just trying to be useful and matter. 121
Interviewer: When you're trying to estimate probability of success, 122
so this thing will be really useful, 123
good area under the curve... 124
I guess to use the example of SpaceX, 125
when you made the go-decision that you were actually going to do that, 126
this was kind of a very crazy thing at the time. 127
Elon: Very crazy. 128
For sure. 129
They were not shy of saying that. 130
But I agreed with them that it was quite crazy. 131
Crazy... 132
if the objective was to achieve the best risk-adjusted return, 133
starting off a company is insane. 134
But that was not my objective. 135
I'd soon come to a conclusion that if something didn't happen to improve rocket technology, 136
we'd be stuck on earth forever. 137
And the big aerospace companies had just had no interest in radical innovation. 138
All they wanted to do was try to make their old technology slightly better every year. 139
And in fact, 140
sometimes it would actually get worse. 141
Particularly in rockets, 142
it was pretty bad. 143
In '69 we were able to go to the moon with the Saturn 5. 144
And then the space shuttle could only take people to low-earth orbit. 145
And then the space shuttle retired. 146
And that trend basically trends to zero. 147
People sometimes think technology just automatically gets better every year but actually it doesn't. 148
It only gets better if smart people work like crazy to make it better. 149
That's how any technology actually gets better. 150
By itself, 151
technology, 152
if people don't work at it, 153
actually will decline. 154
Look at the history of civilizations, 155
many civilizations. 156
Look at, 157
say, 158
ancient Egypt, 159
where they were able to build these incredible pyramids and then they basically forgot how to build pyramids. 160
And even hieroglyphics. 161
They forgot how to read hieroglyphics. 162
Or if you look at Rome and how they were able to build these incredible roadways and aqueducts and indoor plumbing, 163
they forgot how to do all of those things. 164
There are many such examples in history. 165
So I think we should always bear in mind that entropy is not on your side. 166
Interviewer: One thing I really like about you is you are unusually fearless and willing to go in the face of other people telling you something is crazy. 167
And I know a lot of pretty crazy people. 168
You still stand out. 169
Where does that come from or how do you think about making a decision when everyone tells you, 170
"This is a crazy idea? 171
" Where do you get the internal strength to do that? 172
Elon: Well, 173
first of all I'd say I actually think I feel fear quite strongly. 174
So it's not as though I just have the absence of fear. 175
I feel it quite strongly. 176
There are just times when something is important enough that you believe in it enough that you do it in spite of fear. 177
Interviewer: So, 178
speaking of important things. 179
Elon: It's like, 180
people shouldn't think, 181
well, 182
"I feel fear about this and therefore I shouldn't do it, 183
" it's normal to feel fear. 184
Like, 185
you'd have to have something mentally wrong with you if you don't feel fear. 186
Interviewer: So, 187
you just feel it and let the importance of it drive you to do it anyway? 188
Elon: Yeah. 189
You know, 190
actually something that can be helpful is fatalism, 191
to some degree. 192
If you just accept the probabilities, 193
then that diminishes fear. 194
When starting SpaceX, 195
I thought the odds of success were less than 10% and I just accepted that actually probably I would just lose everything. 196
But that maybe would make some progress. 197
If we could just move the ball forward, 198
even if we died, 199
maybe some other company could pick up the baton and keep moving it forward, 200
so we'd still do some good. 201
Yeah, 202
same with Tesla. 203
I thought the odds of a car company succeeding were extremely low. 204
Interviewer: What do you think the odds of the Mars colony are at this point, 205
today? 206
Elon: Well, 207
oddly enough, 208
I actually think they're pretty good. 209
Interviewer: So when can I go? 210
If I can come back, 211
I want to come back. 212
Elon: I hope I'm not in some realm of self-delusion here. 213
But look at it this way: at this point, 214
I'm certain there is a way. 215
I'm certain that success is one of possible outcomes for establishing a self-sustaining Mars colony, 216
a growing Mars colony. 217
I'm certain that is possible. 218
Whereas until maybe a few years ago, 219
I was not sure that success was even one of the possible outcomes. 220
In terms of having some meaningful number of people going to Mars, 221
I think this is potentially something that can be accomplished in about 10 years. 222
Maybe sooner, 223
maybe nine years. 224
I need to make sure that SpaceX doesn't die between now and then and that I don't die, 225
or if I do die, 226
that someone takes over who will continue that. 227
Interviewer: You shouldn't go on the first launch. 228
Elon: Yeah, 229
exactly. 230
The first launch will be robotic anyway. 231
Interviewer: I want to go, 232
except for the Internet latency. 233
Elon: Yeah, 234
the internet latency would be pretty significant. 235
Mars is roughly 12 light minutes from the sun and Earth is 8 light minutes. 236
So, 237
the closest approach to Mass is four light minutes away. 238
The furthest approach is 20. 239
A little more because you can't sort of talk directly through the sun. 240
Interviewer: Speaking of really important problems, 241
AI. 242
You have been outspoken about AI. 243
Could you talk about what you think the positive future for AI looks like and how we get there? 244
Elon: Okay, 245
I mean I do want to emphasize that this is not really something that I advocate or this is not prescriptive. 246
This is simply, 247
hopefully, 248
predictive. 249
Because you will hear some say, 250
well, 251
like this is something that I want to occur instead of this is something I think that probably is the best of the available alternatives. 252
The best of the available alternatives that I can come up with, 253
and maybe someone else can come up with a better approach or better outcome, 254
is that we achieve democratization of AI technology. 255
Meaning that no one company or small set of individuals has control over advanced AI technology. 256
I think that's very dangerous. 257
It could also get stolen by somebody bad, 258
like some evil dictator or country could send their intelligence agency to go steal it and gain control. 259
It just becomes a very unstable situation, 260
I think, 261
if you've got any incredibly powerful 262
AI. 263
You just don't know who's going to control that. 264
So it's not that I think that the risk is that the AI would develop a will of its own right off the bat. 265
I think the concern is that someone may use it in a way that is bad. 266
Or even if they weren't going to use it in a way that's bad but somebody could take it from them and use it in a way that's bad, 267
that, 268
I think, 269
is quite a big danger. 270
So I think we must have democratization of AI technology to make it widely available. 271
And that's the reason that obviously you, 272
me, 273
and the rest of the team created OpenAI was to help spread out AI technology so it doesn't get concentrated in the hands of a few. 274
But then, 275
of course, 276
that needs to be combined with solving the high-bandwidth interface to the cortex. 277
Interviewer: Humans are so slow. 278
Elon: Humans are so slow. 279
Yes, 280
exactly. 281
But we already have a situation in our brain where we've got the cortex and the limbic system... 282
The limbic system is kind of a... 283
I mean, 284
that's the primitive brain. 285
That's kind of like your instincts and whatnot. 286
And the cortex is the thinking upper part of the brain. 287
Those two seem to work together quite well. 288
Occasionally, 289
your cortex and limbic system will disagree, 290
but they... 291
Interviewer: It generally works pretty well. 292
Elon: Generally works pretty well, 293
and it's like rare to find someone who... 294
I've not found someone wishes to either get rid of the cortex or get rid of the limbic system. 295
Interviewer: Very true. 296
Elon: Yeah, 297
that's unusual. 298
So I think if we can effectively merge with AI by improving the neural link between your cortex and your digital extension of yourself, 299
which already, 300
like I said, 301
already exists, 302
just has a bandwidth issue. 303
And then effectively you become an AI-human symbiote. 304
And if that then is widespread, 305
with anyone who wants it can have it, 306
then we solve the control problem as well, 307
we don't have to worry about some evil dictator AI because we are the AI collectively. 308
That seems like the best outcome I can think of. 309
Interviewer: So, 310
you've seen other companies in their early days that start small and get really successful. 311
I hope I never get this asked on camera, 312
but how do you think OpenAI is going as a six-month-old company? 313
Elon: I think it's going pretty well. 314
I think we've got a really talented group at OpenAI. 315
Interviewer: Seems like it. 316
Elon: Yeah, 317
a really talented team and they're working hard. 318
OpenAI is structured as a 501(c)(3) non-profit. 319
But many non-profits do not have a sense of urgency. 320
It's fine, 321
they don't have to have a sense of urgency, 322
but OpenAI does because I think people really believe in the mission. 323
I think it's important. 324
And it's about minimizing the risk of existential harm in the future. 325
And so I think it's going well. 326
I'm pretty impressed with what people are doing and the talent level. 327
And obviously, 328
we're always looking for great people to join in the mission. 329
Interviewer: It looks like close to 40 people now. 330
It's quite a lot. 331
All right. 332
Just a few more questions before we wrap up. 333
How do you spend your days now? 334
What do you allocate most of your time to? 335
Elon: My time is mostly split between SpaceX and Tesla. 336
And of course, 337
I try to spend a part of every week at OpenAI. 338
So I spend basically half a day at OpenAI most weeks. 339
And then I have some OpenAI stuff that happens during the week. 340
But other than that, 341
it's really SpaceX and Tesla. 342
Interviewer: What do you do when you're at SpaceX and Tesla? 343
What does your time look like there? 344
Elon: Yes, 345
it's a good question. 346
I think a lot of people think I must spend a lot of time with media or on businessy things. 347
But actually almost all my time, 348
like 80% of it, 349
is spent on engineering and design. 350
Engineering and design, 351
so it's developing next-generation product. 352
That's 80% of it. 353
Interviewer: You probably don't remember this. 354
A very long time ago, 355
many, 356
many, 357
years, 358
you took me on a tour of SpaceX. 359
And the most impressive thing was that you knew every detail of the rocket and every piece of engineering that went into it. 360
And I don't think many people get that about you. 361
Elon: Yeah. 362
I think a lot of people think I'm kind of a business person or something, 363
which is fine. 364
Business is fine. 365
But really it's like at SpaceX, 366
Gwynne Shotwell is Chief Operating Officer. 367
She manages legal, 368
finance, 369
sales, 370
and general business activity. 371
And then my time is almost entirely with the engineering team, 372
working on improving the Falcon 9 and our Dragon spacecraft and developing the Mars Colonial architecture. 373
At Tesla, 374
it's working on the Model 3 and, 375
yeah, 376
so I'm in the design studio, 377
take up a half a day a week, 378
dealing with aesthetics and look-and-feel things. 379
And then most of the rest of the week is just going through engineering of the car itself as well as engineering of the factory. 380
Because the biggest epiphany I've had this year is that what really matters is the machine that builds the machine, 381
the factory. 382
And that is at least two orders of magnitude harder than the vehicle itself. 383
Interviewer: It's amazing to watch the robots go here and these cars just happen. 384
Elon: Yeah. 385
Now, 386
this actually has a relatively lower level of automation compared to what the Gigafactory will have and what Model 3 will have. 387
Interviewer: What's the speed on the line of these cars? 388
Elon: Actually our speed on the line is incredibly slow. 389
I think we are... 390
in terms of the extra velocity of vehicles on the line, 391
it's probably about, 392
including both X and S, 393
it's maybe five centimeters per second. 394
This is very slow. 395
Interviewer: And what would you like to get to? 396
Elon: I'm confident we can get to at least one meter per second. 397
So, 398
a 20-fold increase. 399
Interviewer: That would be very fast. 400
Elon: Yeah. 401
At least. 402
I mean, 403
I think quite a ... 404
one meter per second, 405
just to put into perspective, 406
is a slow walk or a medium-speed walk. 407
A fast walk could be one and a half meters per second. 408
And then the fastest humans can run over 10 meters per second.